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September 4, 2004

The horses are already lining up for 2008

Human Events reports that the names of as many as eleven Republicans are already being circulated as possible successors to President Bush, should he win a second term.  Since VP Cheney's questionable health makes it possible that he won't seek the nomination, the field is considered to be wide open.  Some of these men were gladhanding delegates at this week's convention.  Apart from Cheney, here are the ten that Human Events sees as potential candidates:
  • New York governor George Pataki
  • Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani
  • Virginia Senator George Allen
  • Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel
  • Tennessee Senator and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist
  • Massachussetts Governor Mitt Romney
  • Colorado Governor Bill Owens
  • Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
  • Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge
  • NATO Supreme Commander Gen. James Jones (who??).
Conspicuous by their absence are Arizona Senator John McCain (little loved by conservatives) and National Security Advisor Condi Rice (much admired by conservatives).
 
The point was made over at Free Republic that in presidential races, history has favored governors rather than senators and representatives (unless they first served as VP).  Statistically speaking, that knocks out almost half of the above list.  Some of the others have their own albatrosses, for example: Jones (obscurity), Pataki, Giuliani and Romney (socially liberal). 
 
Current events, however, point to the likelihood that the war on terror will still be trumping most other issues in the minds of the voters.  It remains to be seen who will be ready and able to rise to this challenge.

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